Trump, Tariffs and Trucking

In the last two weeks I’ve been asked several times what I think about the future of trucking based on current tariffs. It’s like asking me where all the pieces will land, while still in the middle of a tornado! I’ve written about tariffs in prior articles (and PODCASTS), claiming they were ONLY brought to bear to address border issues… I was WRONG (a fact that may repeat itself)! The tariffs have morphed into much more than just a leverage for border issues.

Due in large part to lack of federal leadership, Trump has concluded that Canada is vulnerable. He is correct on that front. Any argument that a liberal government can “save Canada from Trump” is delusional. Trump doesn’t like LIBERALS. He saw what was done to the truckers during the convoy and believes the Trudeau liberals to be deranged thugs… which he may well have evidence for. He just came through several years of weaponized government against him… instinctively he has an alliance with the convoy participants. Why would he now, with his overwhelming support, give an inch to a friend of his enemy?

Trump knows the Canadian polls; he sees the Canadian Liberal party grasping to retain its power and control. He knows Canadians have had enough of the whack-a-doodle policies. Pushing for Canada to be the 51st state is playing into the minds of the conservatives in Canada. If they feel overwhelmingly stuck, panicked & desperate for relief, they are far more open to being just that… the 51st state. He saw an opportunity and he is waiting to see how that opportunity can be expanded. In the words of Ray Kroc (founder of McDonalds) “…if I see my competition drowning, I’ll find a garden hose and stuff it down his throat…”. It’s not personal… it’s just business.

If given only two options: losing sovereignty to the USA or losing sovereignty to the WEF (World Economic Forum), I’d rather partner with our friends to the south. However, I don’t think we should be giving up our sovereignty to ANYONE… like we slowly HAVE BEEN to the WEF and other such foreign entities.

Nearly the first casualty in a tariff war will be trucking. Trucking has high cash turnover and is very vulnerable to volume change. A steel mill is a capital-intensive business; billions of dollars invested in processing, inventory and equipment. Their plants are not easy to slow or stop and more than likely they will stock inventory or temporarily sell at a loss.

Trucking companies, however, will be the front lines. Freight not moving means cash not flowing, and this after two years of drought. If you are an Independent Operator, take careful note of the product you haul and determine how exposed you are to a serious drop in volume. You may need to tighten your belt… again!

The real hope for Canada is not based in an adversarial relationship with Trump but one of mutual respect and co-operation. That hope will be nearly impossible to attain if Liberals remain anywhere near the table of input. It’s not personal, its politics (…well… ok… it is personal). Canada going toe to toe with the US is insanity! Thinking we can gain ground by fighting him/them is ridiculous. Even if someone claims to be a conservative, sometimes that can get an even worse reaction (Trump is very familiar with RINO’s). There is only one option for Canada… kiss the ring. That does not mean we give up sovereignty; it means we ‘make a deal’ with ALL the cards on the table. There are only a few people in Canada who can initiate that: Pierre Poilievre, Kevin O’Leary and Premier Danielle Smith. These are the only people who have developed a relationship of respect with Trump (or have the greatest possibility to build an even better one). If the public embrace Liberals to ‘fight’ Trump… we will all be roadkill. Canada vs the USA will never be David vs Goliath… it will be Steve Urkel vs Ironman (with Trudeau whining “did I do thaaaaat”)?

There is almost nothing we can do short term (before a Canadian election). We simply need time to have an election. I’m not even sure if Trump will give us that time. I think he would rather pounce while we are the most vulnerable. However, that’s just a guess that may prove to be both wrong and right several times before this article is even published. The unfathomable pace by which this administration is moving forward is ‘mind boggling’ (I’m sick and tired of people using the word ‘unprecedented’).

Canada is floating around in no man’s land with all our vitals exposed. We can thank our existing party in power for this situation, or more accurately, the party leader. The choice for an election is in the hands of those who desperately want to retain power, if even for 10 more days… sparing no cost or expense for the future… just ten more days, or a month, or six months if they can. How long can they drag it out… legally or even illegally and sparing no cost or expense? They will state they are the best hope for us against the vulnerability… they created. The logic (system of reasoning) in these politics is truly non-existent. Buckle UP!

If you want to check out more advice for Operators go to our You Tube channel (PODCASTS) “Making Your Miles Count” Lots of great advice… it’s your choice.

About the Author:
Robert D. Scheper is a leading Accountant and Consultant exclusively serving the Lease/Owner operator industry in Canada. His first book in the Making Your Miles Count series “taxes, taxes, taxes” was released in 2007. His second book “Choosing a Trucking company” is the most in-depth analysis of the independent operator industry today. He has a Master’s degree (MBA) in financial management and has been serving the industry since he and his wife came off the road in 1993. His dedication, commitment and strong opinions can be read and heard in many articles and seminars.

You can find him at www.makingyourmilescount.com or 1-877-987-9787.