Happy New Year!

Each year in January, most look forward to the next several months. We often think about what good things and what bad things can happen in the New Year. So that’s what this article is going to be about. I think there are a few interesting things that will greatly influence TRUCKING in the next 12 months.

Missed Classification of Drivers

Some people call it ‘Driver Inc’. I believe there will be some forward movement in the next 12 months as this issue continues to receive the attention of the government, trucking associations and the media. Whether you are for Driver Inc. or against it, at this point it doesn’t matter. I do think the government is slowly going to start to enforce the Canada Revenue (CRA) rules. How this will begin to affect trucking will be interesting. I think that both the trucking companies and the individual drivers will become even more creative and find another way to temporarily get around the CRA definitions. That is to say, in the long run, no huge changes will occur in the next 12 months.

Truck Driver Shortage

During this freight recession, there has not been a truck driver shortage. I do think, or at least I am hopeful that the freight recession will end in the next 12 months, and once again we will find ourselves looking for drivers. With the changes that the federal government are proposing and implementing with immigration, this could easily create or add to a truck driver shortage. If this were to happen, that would be good news for truck driver wages. They would likely increase. I don’t think any truck driver would refuse a raise. So, there may be some good news in the next 12 months for you the truck driver. Of course, we will have to see if my crystal ball is correct. Along with possible wage increases, it means trucking freight rates would also have to go up. This could be good news for trucking companies who have long been struggling to get a fair return on their investments.

Self Driving Trucks

The manufacturers will continue to make great strides towards self-driving or autonomous trucks. After all, they are already on our roads. I still believe that we are many years away from driverless trucks. I believe that for the next few years, there will always be an operator in the unit. This means a truck driver’s job may become even more pleasurable, as the advancements in computers and artificial intelligence in this area are amazing. As a car driver that has some of this new technology built into my car, I very much enjoy the driving experience. That said, a false reaction to a situation causes me a great deal of stress. My car has braked when there is no reason to have the brake engaged or to slow down. The artificial intelligence ‘saw’ something and performed in a heartbeat. This became a very stressful event for me as a car driver. I can only imagine how I would feel if I was driving a tractor-trailer, and the unit suddenly braked for no apparent reason. This ‘intelligence’ still has a long way to go. I am very hopeful that in the coming months or perhaps years, the AI will reduce collisions. For now, though, truck drivers are still secure in their jobs and artificial intelligence, or self-driving units currently do not pose an immediate threat to truck drivers.

The Trump Effect

About the time that this article is in the truck stops, Donald Trump will become the President of the United States. The only thing I feel certain of with Trump moving into the presidency is that he will continue to be unpredictable.

I do think that he will implement some tariffs. Will it be the full 25% across the board against all Canadian imports? I think that is highly unlikely. Our economies are so intertwined that this would be very punitive to the United States as well. But I do believe there will be some tariffs on some Canadian imported products to the United States. Tariffs will hurt Canadian trucking companies, shippers and our truck drivers. All tariffs will hurt the Canadian economy in general. And then there is the Canadian government’s reaction to tariffs. That too, will hurt the Canadian economy and, quite possibly, the amount of freight coming back into the country. So again, TRUCKING may be affected negatively. Depending on the percentage of tariffs and the goods that are targeted, I do believe tariffs are bad for trucking. In general, tariffs are certainly bad for the Canadian economy.

In summary, I believe that the year 2025 will be eventful and uncertain. As the saying goes; “May you live in interesting times”.

I wish you all the best for a safe and Happy New Year.

Chris Harris
Top Dawg, Safety Dawg Inc.
905-973-7056
chris@safetydawg.com
@safety_dawg (twitter)